tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4065406139986258489.post3444749084905762852..comments2023-07-27T05:49:05.756-07:00Comments on C. Orthodoxy: Abortion and Teenage Pregnancy By StateKen Brownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08014885672703727636noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4065406139986258489.post-74224963803695121092009-02-10T19:12:00.000-08:002009-02-10T19:12:00.000-08:00Thanks for sharing this post with us..Yeah I read ...Thanks for sharing this post with us..Yeah I read some related articles and the highest percentage that teen pregnancy is growing is int he Africa.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4065406139986258489.post-80326420447331518132009-01-28T09:36:00.000-08:002009-01-28T09:36:00.000-08:00N. Adam,I agree with that, and am reminded of the ...N. Adam,<BR/>I agree with that, and am reminded of the aphorism:<BR/><BR/>There's lies, there's damn lies, and then there's statistics.<BR/><BR/>Still, it is not as though I were making extravagant claims based on this (admittedly) spotty data. Recall my conclusions:<BR/><BR/>"Now clearly there is much more involved in these differences in teenage pregnancy and abortion rates than a few parental consent laws. There are, very obviously, strong cultural differences that no laws (for or against abortion) can eliminate....<BR/><BR/>All of which renders very problematic the claim that restricting access to abortion inevitably leads to higher rates of teenage pregnancy. If anything, the opposite seems to be the case."<BR/><BR/>Certainly that last line is debatable--which is why I only said it "seems" to be the case--but it is not unjustifiable.Ken Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08014885672703727636noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4065406139986258489.post-81692037473330206232009-01-28T07:16:00.000-08:002009-01-28T07:16:00.000-08:00Those complications are all relevant and important...<I>Those complications are all relevant and important, but I'm not trying to prove causation here, only trying to show that the causation you claimed is not "necessarily" the case.</I><BR/><BR/>Well, jeb hit it right on the head. However low a single state's abortion-teen pregnancy rate is relative to a different state is not entirely irrelevant, but hardly suggestive enough to debunk my previous claim. One would either need "before and after" results in the same state (within the same cultural generation, I would imagine) or two states within the same region (like Vermount and Maine or North Dakota and South Dakota). To disprove my claim, it would only have to be demonstrated once, but to prove your greater point you would have to establish a trend. Which gets me to my next point.<BR/><BR/>While attempting to debunk my claim, I would caution against opening yourself up to debunking in the meantime. Playing with statistics is like playing with fire. I recall myself recently assumed, as I often am, by Ann Coulter's latest book tour, during which she states that 70% of all runaways come from single parent households. Well, I thought to myself, if there were only two parent households, 100% of the runaways would come from them. Which, naturally, got me thinking of the South Park episode were all the parents in South Park discovered that they--not random strangers--were the ones most likely to abduct their own children; absurdity ensues when, in order to protect their children from statistical abduction, they willingly leave the kids to fend for themselves. Trend carefully, my friend (pun intended).Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04895456698133290279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4065406139986258489.post-7055898061943590582009-01-27T23:06:00.000-08:002009-01-27T23:06:00.000-08:00David,Thanks! I hope you are settling in well afte...David,<BR/>Thanks! I hope you are settling in well after the move! <BR/><BR/>N. Adam,<BR/><I>I am pleased that am I providing you with such attractive material, Ken.</I><BR/><BR/>Touche.<BR/><BR/><I>Several things to consider...</I><BR/><BR/>Those complications are all relevant and important, but I'm not trying to prove causation here, only trying to show that the causation you claimed is not "necessarily" the case. <BR/><BR/>Jeb,<BR/><I>Perhaps looking at data within states over time rather than comparing the rates of different states may serve to control for the extraneous factors--population density, interstate travel, etc.--that N. Adam mentions.</I><BR/><BR/>I agree and I plan to look into it, though it may take some doing, and in any case would be open to its own set of confounding factors. For a start, you can try <A HREF="http://www.heritage.org/Research/Family/CDA07-01.cfm" REL="nofollow">this</A>, but it only measures change in abortion rate by state; it does not compare that with pregnancy rate.<BR/><BR/>James,<BR/><I>why hasn't Guttmacher released new statistics yet? It's been nine years!</I><BR/><BR/>They have released <A HREF="http://www.guttmacher.org/sections/index.php?page=stats" REL="nofollow">some</A> more recent numbers, but nothing with the kind of detail needed for this analysis. They do seem to take their time about it, don't they? Even the 2000 numbers were only released in late 2006.Ken Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08014885672703727636noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4065406139986258489.post-28544569450065382232009-01-27T14:05:00.000-08:002009-01-27T14:05:00.000-08:00There are so many ways to look at the Guttmacher s...There are so many ways to look at the Guttmacher statistics. Here's another issue I brought up a while back--when abstinence-only education was being debated: in which states did abortion and teen pregnancy go down? There are liberals who like to say Bush's abstinence-only sex ed didn't work when he was governor of Texas, but here's how I responded, using the 2000 Guttmacher stats:<BR/><BR/>"First, at least teenage pregnancy rates went down under Governor Bush. From what I can see from the Alan Guttmacher Institute's own statistics, they did not decline under Democratic Governor Ann Richards, whose daughter currently heads Planned Parenthood."<BR/><BR/>Of course, they also went down in California, but then I'd just focus on California still having a high number, notwithstanding its comprehensive sex education.<BR/><BR/>BTW, why hasn't Guttmacher released new statistics yet? It's been nine years!James Patehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14247799389009268470noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4065406139986258489.post-62462858153801142432009-01-27T13:00:00.000-08:002009-01-27T13:00:00.000-08:00Ken, if I may offer a suggestion...N. Adam claimed...Ken, if I may offer a suggestion...<BR/><BR/>N. Adam claimed (I believe) that essentially, "parental consent/notification requirements quite necessarily increases the rate of teenage pregnancy."<BR/><BR/>Perhaps looking at data within states over time rather than comparing the rates of different states may serve to control for the extraneous factors--population density, interstate travel, etc.--that N. Adam mentions. I don't have the time at the moment to look it up myself, but it may be interesting to check *when* exactly the "pro-choice" states enacted legislation similar to the FOCA, and when the "anti-abortion" states enacted the opposite kind of legislation.<BR/><BR/>It would support your point if pregnancy rates rose after FOCA-like legislation was enacted in 'pro-choice' states, and fell after 'anti-abortion' states enacted the opposite sort of legislation. If, on the other hand, those states you mentioned experienced a decline in teen pregnancy rates following FOCA, that would support N. Adams' point.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4065406139986258489.post-43415974966280259582009-01-27T11:37:00.000-08:002009-01-27T11:37:00.000-08:00I am pleased that am I providing you with such att...I am pleased that am I providing you with such attractive material, Ken.<BR/><BR/>--<BR/><BR/>Several things to consider:<BR/><BR/>First, low abortion rates and low pregnancy rates may be conjoined based on population density (or any other factor) and have no influence over one another directly.<BR/><BR/>New Jersey has the highest population density in the US, Maryland has the fifth, New York has the sixth, and California has the eleventh (which is very high considering California is the third largest state by area).<BR/><BR/>South Dakota, North Dakota, New Mexico, and Utah are all in the lowest ten in terms of population density. <BR/><BR/>Second, is it possible that people may be doing some interstate traveling to have abortions? A state like Nevada has an economy that is almost entirely tourist based.<BR/><BR/>Thirdly, might it be the case that better access to contraception is an effect--rather than a cause--of the the problem?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04895456698133290279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4065406139986258489.post-75344317010860536872009-01-27T11:34:00.000-08:002009-01-27T11:34:00.000-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04895456698133290279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4065406139986258489.post-44840983517227550972009-01-26T23:38:00.000-08:002009-01-26T23:38:00.000-08:00Ken, you're posting so much good stuff lately. Kee...Ken, you're posting so much good stuff lately. Keep it up. I'm blogrolling you.David Kerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13140007604009678479noreply@blogger.com